2018 Minnesota District 3 Us House of Representatives Election

by APM RESEARCH LAB STAFF | UPDATED NOV. 12, 2018

Minnesota was a bellwether in the 2022 midterm elections. See what various political polls—rounded up from numerous reputable sources—said nigh the races for governor, attorney full general, U.S. Senate, and Minnesota's Congressional races during the countdown to election mean solar day, and how close they were to election outcomes.

Why poll-watch Minnesota? In addition to being the location of the Lab's world headquarters, Minnesota has become an increasingly regal state. Despite having the nation's near consistent Democratic presidential voting record over the by l years:

• President Trump lost by only 1.v per centum points in 2016.

• Heading into the 2022 midterms, iv of Minnesota's eight congressional seats are occupied by someone from the party contrary its presidential vote. Additionally, Minnesota'southward Governor and U.S. Senators are Democrats (officially DFLers in MN) while Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the state's legislature.

Let's see what Minnesotans are thinking nearly President Trump and key races, based on a circular-up of non-partisan polls.

• President Trump

President Trump: blessing ratings

While not on the election this November, Trump's personality and policies are a cardinal feature in many races, with many candidates seeking to distance themselves or chapter themselves with him.

In the nearly recent poll President Trump'due south disapproval charge per unit, 56 percent, was a statistically significant 18 percentage points higher than his 38 pct job approval rate.

President Trump's job approval ratings in Minnesota

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Governor: Johnson (R) 5. Walz (DFL)

Two-term Democratic Governor Marking Dayton is vacating his seat. Republican Jeff Johnson, currently a Hennepin County commissioner, is facing off with Democrat Tim Walz, currently a U.S. House member representing Minnesota's 1st Congressional Commune. Johnson's running mate, Donna Bergstrom, is a retired Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel living in Duluth. Peggy Flanagan, running for Lieutenant Governor on the DFL ticket, is a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives. Bergstrom is a fellow member of the Red Lake Nation, and Flanagan is member of the White Earth Nation; either ticket would put an indigenous adult female in the Lieutenant Governor'southward seat for the first time.

Walz prevailed  in the election by an 11 percentage signal margin. Polls consistently had him leading the race. The near recent poll, conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of KSTP merely one week prior to the election, most closely matched the final outcome.

Minnesota Governor's Race: Jeff Johnson (R) v. Tim Walz (DFL)

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Attorney General: Ellison (DFL) v. Wardlow (R)

Democrat Keith Ellison, who currently represents the Minneapolis-dominated fifth Congressional District, is vying for the attorney general's function, which Lori Swanson (DFL) opened when she decided to run for governor. The Republican candidate is Doug Wardlow, attorney and sometime Minnesota Business firm member representing a suburban district n of St. Paul.

Ellison prevailed in the ballot by a iv percentage point margin. Notably, Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis candidate Noah Johnson, received 6 percent of the votes. Polls showed a close race throughout the election. The about recent poll, conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of KSTP only one week prior to the ballot, about closely matched the final result.

Minnesota Attorney General'south Race: Doug Wardlow (R) v. Keith Ellison (DFL)

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U.S. Senate: Klobuchar (DFL)* v. Newberger (R)

Incumbent (*) DFLer Amy Klobuchar is seeking reelection to the seat she has occupied since 2007. Republican challenger Jim Newberger is a fellow member of the Minnesota Business firm, representing District 15B in key Minnesota. He is also a paramedic and a cocky-proclaimed supporter of President Trump.

Klobuchar prevailed in the election by a 24 per centum point margin. Polls consistently had her leading the race. The most recent poll, conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of KSTP simply one week prior to the election, well-nigh closely matched the terminal effect.

U.S. Senate Race: Amy Klobuchar (DFL)* 5. Jim Newberger (R)

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U.Southward. Senate: Smith (DFL)* v. Housley (R)

Former Lieutenant Governor, incumbent (*) Democrat Tina Smith was appointed to fill this seat when Al Franken resigned in early 2018. Thus 2022 is a special election for the seat's term, which will be up again in 2020. Smith is challenged by Republican Karin Housley, who currently serves as a state Senator, representing District 39 in the eastern Twin Cities area.

Smith prevailed in the election by an 11 percent point margin. Polls consistently had her leading the race. The about recent poll, conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of KSTP just ane calendar week prior to the election, most closely matched the terminal result.

U.South. Senate Race: Tina Smith (DFL)* v. Karin Housley (R)

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Minnesota's Congressional Districts

Scroll over for recent voting history and more

Congressional Commune 1: Feehan (DFL) 5. Hagedorn (R)

This Southern Minnesota district includes regional centers Albert Lea, Austin, Mankato, and Rochester (home of the Mayo Clinic). The seat is currently held past DFLer Tim Walz, who is running for governor. In 2022 Jim Hagedorn (R) lost a bid for the seat by less than one percent indicate. That aforementioned twelvemonth, the district voted in favor of President Trump by a xv percentage betoken margin. This year former U.Southward. Treasury official Hagedorn is challenged by Iraq war veteran Dan Feehan (DFL).

Hagedorn prevailed  in this extremely close race by less than half a percent betoken(fifty.1% compared with 49.7% voting for Feehan), successfully flipping the district from DFL to Republican control.

The merely nonpartisan poll in this race, done by SurveyUSA on behalf of KSTP and KAAL October 16-20, showed the race statistically tied (47% favoring Feehan, and 45% favoring Hagedorn, with eight% undecided). Based on polls, historical voting trends, and assay, leading political forecasters had rated this race every bit follows (every bit of 11/6, prior to election results):

• Cook Political Report: Toss upwards

• FiveThirtyEight: Toss up (56% adventure that Feehan will win)

• Real Articulate Politics: Toss up

• Sabato's Crystal Brawl: Leans Democrat

• Politico: Toss up

• CNN: Toss up

• Decision Desk/Optimus: Toss up (53% chance that Feehan volition win)

Congressional District 2: Lewis (R)* v. Craig (DFL)

This suburban district lies just south of Minneapolis and St. Paul. Incumbent (*) Republican former radio host Jason Lewis is once again facing DFL challenger Angie Craig. In 2022 Lewis prevailed by less than two pct points; Trump carried the district by only one betoken.

Craig prevailed  in the ballot by a half-dozen per centum bespeak margin, successfully flipping the district from Republican to DFL control.

The first of two nonpartisan polls conducted in the district prior to the election more closely matched the eventual effect overall, although the more recent of the two closely reflected the proportion that eventually voted for Craig.

U.South. House Commune 2: Jason Lewis (R)* v. Angie Craig (DFL)

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Congressional Commune 3: Paulsen (R)* 5. Phillips (DFL)

This district in the western suburbs surrounding Minneapolis is Minnesota'south most flush and boasts one of the nation'southward lowest unemployment rates. In 2022 incumbent (*) Republican Erik Paulsen was re-elected by a xiv percentage point margin, even while the district went for Democrat Hillary Clinton by 9 points. Paulsen is being challenged by DFLer Dean Phillips.

Phillips prevailed  in the election by a larger-than-expected 11 percentage point margin, successfully flipping the commune from Republican to DFL control.

The offset of 2 nonpartisan polls conducted in the district prior to the election more closely matched the eventual consequence overall, although the more than recent of the two closely matched the proportion that eventually voted for Paulsen.

U.Due south. House District three: Erik Paulsen (R)* v. Dean Phillips (DFL)

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Congressional District 4: McCollum (DFL)* five. Ryan (R)

Incumbent (*) DFLer Betty McCollum has held this seat, which includes St. Paul and its eastern suburbs, since her win in 2000. This year she is defending the seat in a re-lucifer with Greg Ryan, who she defeated past a decisive 23 percentage points in 2016, although the commune voted in favor of Clinton by the even wider 31 point margin in that twelvemonth's presidential ballot.

McCollum prevailed  in this race past a 36 percentage indicate margin (66% to Ryan's 30%, with iv% favoring Legal Marijuana Now candidate, Susan Pendergast Sindt). In that location was non whatsoever non-partisan polling for this district prior to the election. However, based on historical voting trends and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated this race as follows (as of 11/6, prior to election results):

• Cook Political Study: Solid Democrat

• FiveThirtyEight: Solid Democrat (99.9% risk)

• Real Clear Politics: Safe Democrat

• Sabato'southward Crystal Ball: Safe Democrat

• Politico: Solid Democrat

• CNN: Solid Democrat

• Decision Desk/Optimus: Safe Democrat (97% chance)

Congressional District five: Omar (DFL) v. Zielinski (R)

In 2022 this district, made upwardly of Minneapolis and its commencement ring suburbs, went for Keith Ellison by 47 pct points, and favored Clinton in the presidential race by a 55 point margin. Ellison is now running for attorney full general, and DFL state representative Ilhan Omar is facing Republican Jennifer Zielinski for the seat.

Omar prevailed  by a 56 percentage point margin (78% to 22% voting for Zielinski). Omar became the kickoff refugee, first Somali-American, and, along with Rashida Tlaib from Michigan's 13th District, outset Muslim adult female elected to Congress.

There was not any non-partisan polling for this district prior to the ballot. Even so, based on historical voting trends and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated this race as follows (equally of eleven/six, prior to election results):

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

• FiveThirtyEight: Solid Democrat (99.9% run a risk)

• Real Clear Politics: Safe Democrat

• Sabato'southward Crystal Ball: Rubber Democrat

• Politico: Solid Democrat

• CNN: Solid Democrat

• Decision Desk/Optimus: Safe Democrat (99% chance)

Congressional District 6: Emmer (R)* five. Todd (DFL)

Incumbent (*) Republican Tom Emmer was elected to stand for this central Minnesota commune in 2014. He was re-elected in 2022 by a margin of 31 per centum points, which was even greater than Trump'southward 26 point margin in the presidential election in that location (for district demographic characteristics and recent voting history, come across Representing US). DFLer Ian Todd, an Air Strength Veteran, is challenging Emmer.

Emmer prevailed  by 22 pct points, receiving 66 percent of the votes, compared to Todd's 39 percent. There was not whatsoever non-partisan polling for this district prior to the election. However, based on historical voting trends and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated this race as follows (as of 11/6, prior to election results):

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican

• FiveThirtyEight: Solid Republican (99.9% chance)

• Existent Clear Politics: Safe Republican

• Sabato'south Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

• Pol: Solid Republican

• CNN: Solid Republican

• Decision Desk/Optimus: Safe Republican (99.7% chance)

Congressional District seven: Peterson (DFL)* v. Hughes (R)

Incumbent (*) DFLer Collin Peterson has held this seat, which includes about all of the western third of the state, since winning election in 1990. In 2022 Peterson defeated Republican Air Force Veteran Dave Hughes by five pct points, even though President Trump won 31 percent of the commune's vote, the nation's biggest Congressional-Presidential vote dissever. Hughes and Peterson are facing off again this yr.

Peterson prevailed  by four percentage points, receiving 52 percent of the votes compared to Hughes' 48 percent. There was not whatever non-partisan polling for this district prior to the ballot. However, based on historical voting trends and analysis, leading political forecasters had rated this race every bit follows (as of 11/6, prior to election results):

• Cook Political Study: Likely Democrat

• FiveThirtyEight: Likely Democrat (93% chance)

• Real Clear Politics: Toss upward

• Sabato'south Crystal Ball: Likely Democrat

• Political leader: Probable Democrat

• CNN: Solid Democrat

• Decision Desk/Optimus: Safety Democrat (98% run a risk)

Congressional District 8: Radinovich (DFL) 5. Stauber (R)

Minnesota'southward "Iron Range" district extends beyond the northeastern mining towns to Duluth and south of the northern Twin Cities exurbs. Out-going DFLer Rick Nolan, who was elected to the seat in 2012, won in 2022 by less than one percent point, while President Trump carried the district past xvi points. Joe Radinovich (DFL) and Pete Stauber (R) are vying for the hotly contested open up seat.

Stauber prevailed  in the ballot by 6 percentage points, successfully flipping the district to Republican control.

Ii nonpartisan polls were conducted in the district leading up to the election, both by Siena College Research Plant on behalf of the New York Times. The more recent of the two had Stauber up by a 15 percentage signal margin. The proportion favoring Stauber in that poll (49%) closely matched the proportion that somewhen voted for Stauber (51%), while the poll they conducted in early September more closely matched the proportion somewhen voting for Radinovich.

U.S. House District 8: Pete Stauber (R) v. Joe Radinovich (DFL)

Annotation: Dotted lines represent margins of error around bespeak estimates.

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Source: https://www.apmresearchlab.org/mnpoll2018

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